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Many-analysts studies explore how well an empirical claim withstands plausible alternative analyses of the same dataset by multiple, independent analysis teams. Conclusions from these studies typically rely on a single outcome metric (e.g. effect size) provided by each analysis team. Although informative about the range of plausible effects in a dataset, a single effect size from each team does not provide a complete, nuanced understanding of how analysis choices are related to the outcome. We used the Delphi consensus technique with input from 37 experts to develop an 18-item subjective evidence evaluation survey (SEES) to evaluate how each analysis team views the methodological appropriateness of the research design and the strength of evidence for the hypothesis. We illustrate the usefulness of the SEES in providing richer evidence assessment with pilot data from a previous many-analysts study. 

Prior expectations can bias how we perceive pain. Using a drift diffusion model, we recently showed that this influence is primarily based on changes in perceptual decision-making (indexed as shift in starting point). Only during unexpected application of high-intensity noxious stimuli, altered information processing (indexed as increase in drift rate) explained the expectancy effect on pain processing. Here, we employed functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate the neural basis of both these processes in healthy volunteers. On each trial, visual cues induced the expectation of high- or low-intensity noxious stimulation or signaled equal probability for both intensities. Participants categorized a subsequently applied electrical stimulus as either low- or high-intensity pain. A shift in starting point towards high pain correlated negatively with right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex activity during cue presentation underscoring its proposed role of “keeping pain out of mind”. This anticipatory right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex signal increase was positively correlated with periaqueductal gray (PAG) activity when the expected high-intensity stimulation was applied. A drift rate increase during unexpected high-intensity pain was reflected in amygdala engagement and increased functional connectivity between amygdala and PAG. Our findings suggest involvement of the PAG in both decision-making bias and altered information processing to implement expectancy effects on pain.